SPC AC 121728
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH INITIAL DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   SHOWING LARGE CLOSED LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. WILL
   SHIFT EWD...WITH THE CENTROID OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE MID
   SOUTH TO NC/VA BY 12Z SUNDAY.  SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
   CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE CLOSED LOW...
   WITH ONE MOVING NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON...AND SEVERAL MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   AND SERN STATES.  MEANWHILE...THE SRN PORTION OF A SPLITTING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN CA LATE DAY 1/EARLY SATURDAY WILL
   EVOLVE INTO A COMPACT PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW ON DAY TRACKING SEWD
   THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
   A SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE NC COAST AT 12Z SATURDAY
   WITH A SECOND LOW OVER WRN NC/SWRN VA.  THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS VA/MD AND
   BEGIN TO FILL SATURDAY NIGHT.  MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...IF NOT
   ALL...SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL
   FOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF REACHING SEVERE
   CRITERIA REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AN
   ESE TRAILING FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES NNEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS.  THEREAFTER...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR
   THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN VA...COUPLED WITH COOLING
   ALOFT...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. 
   
   MEANWHILE...DESPITE LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER DAYTIME
   SURFACE HEATING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY 
   CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
   OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...ERN NV TO FOUR CORNERS...
   STRONG LIFT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING /-26 TO -30C 500 MB COLD CORE/ ARE
   EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE EVOLVING CLOSED LOW.  COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL
   LIKELY LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NV/SRN UT/NRN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING HOURS...AN ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THIS
   REGION.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/12/2010