SPC AC 110819
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CLOSED/EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
   EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH A QUICKLY
   ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXPECTED TO
   RESULT IN A NARROWING/OFFSHORE-SHIFTING WARM/MOIST SECTOR FOR MUCH
   OF THE FL VICINITY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY IN THE DAY.
   NONETHELESS...LINGERING TSTM/PERHAPS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHER TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS VICINITY
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NC/VA...
   AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
   MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD...DEGREE/POSSIBILITY OF INLAND SURFACE
   WARM/MOIST SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN ATTENDANT TO POTENTIALLY
   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND NARROWING WARM SECTOR/SURFACE OCCLUSION.
   BUT GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY...IT
   APPEARS AT LEAST LOW/CONDITIONAL-TYPE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
   WARRANTED FOR THE RISK OF RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF
   SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND...MAINLY FOR EASTERN NC/SOUTHEAST
   VA.
   
   ...SOUTH FL...
   GIVEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE PARENT
   SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT
   APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED...AS IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE RISK SHOULD
   WANE ACROSS MUCH OR ALL OF SOUTH FL/FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/11/2010