SPC AC 101627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010
   
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION  OF THE
   SCENTRAL CONUS/MID AND LWR MS VALLEY......
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITATION ON UPGRADING TO
   A GREATER RISK FOR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NOW TX PANHANDLE
   TRACKS NEWD ACROSS OK TO VICINITY MKC BY 12Z THU. 
   
   STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 80-90KT ACCOMPANIES UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN
   OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
   STREAKS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE SHEAR AND
   UPPER DIVERGENCE LOWER MS VALLEY THRU THE PERIOD ENHANCING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN THIS AREA.
   
   COMPLEX RAPIDLY EVOLVING SEVERE SCENARIO AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   QUICKLY RETURNS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NCENTRAL
   TX. STEEP/COOL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
   SYSTEM...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS MUCH
   OF LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...ERN SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY INCLUDING MO OZARKS...
   SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE INTO SRN MO PRIOR TO
   THE ARRIVAL OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER VORT/WIND MAX TO SUPPORT
   DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
   NOW N OF SPS DEEPENING NEWD ACROSS OK DURING AFTERNOON...SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ERN OK AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAVE INCREASED THE WIND
   POTENTIAL INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AREA.  AN UPGRADE MAY BE JUSTIFIED THE
   SAME AREA IN AFTERNOON UPDATE IF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN RETURN
   MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
   
   ADDITIONALLY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
   LINE.  WITH THE COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE  UP TO 1000 J/KG
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL ALONG WITH A TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ...LWR MS VALLEY...
   MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LOWER
   MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CENTRAL TX.  WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...7-8C/KM...OVERSPREADING THE AREA...CONDITIONS ARE NOW
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION QUICKLY WEAKENS.  
   
   WITH 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THRU THE
   DAY...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 
   WITH THE BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ACROSS
   NRN GULF DISCRETE STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY ALONG WITH TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.  GIVEN MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND THE STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES LARGE HAIL ALSO LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG
   UPDRAFT...PARTICULARLY SUPERCELLS.
   
   TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE TONIGHT CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. 
   HERE...INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A VORT MAX
   MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL
   LIKELY SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..HALES/GRAMS.. 03/10/2010